Home Boxing News DemolitionDan Predicts this weekends fights (24-25 June, 2011)

DemolitionDan Predicts this weekends fights (24-25 June, 2011)

Another super weekend of boxing this week. Great Friday Night Fights on paper, James Kirkland is back on the re-comeback trail, and HBO has 3 great fights, a tripleheader, except there will only be two great fights on. For some reason HBO is showing Ray Austin-Bermane Stiverne instead of the K9-Powell rematch. A bit of a strange decision. They have no Heavyweight interest, they have massive Canelo interest, and Bundrage and Powell are 154 fighters…like Canelo. Again, don’t exactly know what HBO is doing, but whatever. Let’s just get to the predictions, shall we?

Let’s start off with, well, the almost 99.99 percent sure fire pick. Mike Jones is fighting Raul Munoz, and we really don’t have to go too deep in this fight. Jones has fought much better competition than Munoz, and Munoz has been beat and knocked out by fighters like Mike Jones. Um, I don’t even know if you could bet on this fight, but if you did I’m sure the odds are about 1/25 in favor of Mike Jones, so, with that value I wouldn’t even bet on the fight, but I guess I would roll with Mike Jones and put a lot of money on him.

Ok, now that we got that fight out of the way, let’s talk about the big fights this weekend. Let’s start off with Humberto Soto and Motoki Sasaki. When you look at both fighters’ records, you might think, well, they aren’t that good, but that is not true at all. Sasaki started off his career rough losing a few here there, but has since to be a domestic force. At 140, he won the Japenese 140 title, went up to 147 and won the OPBF title, and then has recently gone down to 140 and won the OPBF title there as well. Sasaki tried the waters at the world level when he went to Ukraine and fought for a 147 world title belt against Viacheslav Senchenko, but fell way short and lost by very wide UD. Still though, Sasaki is definitely a good fighter and much better than what his record indicates. Then we got Humberto Soto, and again much better than what his record indicates. Like most Mexican fighters, he took his lumps early on getting beat up as a teen and young adult before he finally got his man muscles and really started figuring it out. Realistically, you can say he has two losses…or erm, well, if we are counting his most recent “loss” well then I guess 3, but it was a…well, let’s just say Soto was DQ’d and Joe Cortez was the ref. If you haven’t seen the vid, I think you can figure that one out. Need I say more? Since that DQ loss, he has picked up world title straps at 130 and 135, and in his last title defense, last year in Decemeber, he took on Urbano Antillon and if you haven’t seen that vid, hop on YouTube or wherever and get ready to change your underwear, because that is a great tear up. Back to this fight, I do fancy Soto winning in his backyard and being the better fighter. Sasaki is game, but I just don’t think he can beat Soto, and I don’t think he can take what Soto is going to bring him. I’ve got Soto by late stoppage.

Kell Brook is taking a good step up fight against Lovemore N’Dou. For those that don’t know, Brook is a very good prospect over there in the UK. If you haven’t heard of him or haven’t seen him, well I can’t blame you because Brook hasn’t fought anybody worth noting. He has 23 fights, 23 victories, and his best opponent is Michael Jennings. And that’s it. And 14 of his 23 fights have been against losing opposition. Brook has a very very bad resume so far. He is looking to change things this Saturday as he takes on the very sturdy, durable verteran in Lovemore N’Dou. N’Dou is a former champ and has been in the ring with loads of good and great fighters. N’Dou has never been stopped before in his career, and if Brook really wants to make a statement, he needs to go out and stop N’Dou. This will really get people talking about Brook. He’s a talented kid, he’s got good speed and power, but that could just be he looks good because his opposition is terrible. Anyway, I think Brook gets pushed, I think he wins, by decision, but the vet, N’Dou, definitely pushes him for 12 rounds. We shall see if Brook sinks or swims in this fight.

When you look at Tavoris Cloud’s record it looks very impressive, his record gives you the impression that he is massive power. He definitely has good power, but since he step up his competition 4 fights ago he has only been able to stop 1, Julio Cesar Gonzalez in 10, Clinton Woods, Glen Johnson, Fulgencio Zuniga have all been able to go the 12 round distance. Now to be fair, Glen Johnson is very very durable never being knocked out (retired after 10 against Hopkins) and Clinton Woods, same thing. He’s was only stopped once and that was by Roy Jones Jr. Zuniga, he should have gotten rid of though, but again, to be fair, Cloud all had 3 hurt at different points in those three fights. He just hasn’t stopped his tough competition yet. While Yusaf Mack is a very good opponent, all three of his losses he has been stopped. All by pressure fighters. If Cloud’s power is really legit he should stop Mack. Mack wasn’t able to keep Alejandro Berrio, Librado Andrade, and Glen Johnson off him and he got stopped. All three bring the heat and Cloud brings the heat as well. Again, Mack is a very good fighter, but Cloud if he wants to get to the next level should stop Mack, and I think he does stop him.

Fernando Montiel is back and debuting in a new weight class. As evrybody knows, Montiel was brutally KO’d against Donaire in one of the bigger KO’s of the year. And the impact was so severe that it left a dent in Montiel’s head; a dent on his right cheek. And Montiel should be given credit for coming back really quickly, just 4 months later and he’s fighting again, and he’s not taking on a slouch. He is taking on Nehomar Cermeno a tough fighter born in Venezuela, but fights in Panama. Cermeno was recently undefeated, but has lost 3 of his last 4 fights. Last year in March he lost his 0 to Anselmo Moreno, rematched and lost to him again, won a tuneup, and in January this year lost to Victor Terrazas by SD. He too has recently moved up to 122, so Montiel is new, and Cermeno is pretty new at the weight. I don’t think weight will be a big problem, but the big question I have is how will Montiel react after coming off a brutal loss? That’s the elephant in the room. Cermeno is a tough fighter, all 3 losses by SD on the road. He’s on the road yet again. I think this will be a tough fight for Montiel, I do think though Montiel pulls it off by close UD, because with the new weight, coming off a brutal loss, and fighting a tough opponent makes it a tough fight for Montiel. I’ve got Montiel by very very close UD. I think this could be a MD/SD victory for Montiel, but I’ll go with UD. And being a home is a big factor for Montiel as he wins this fight in very very close fashion.

Felix Sturm is making another defense of his 160 strap in Germany. His opponent is the Irish Matthew Macklin. Sturm the champion is a good fighter, and he is a typical German type fighter. Hands up, throws lots of jabs and has suberb timing with that jab. Macklin, I just don’t know if he has enough skill to beat Sturm. He has dynamite in his punches, he is very powerful, and definitely can hurt Strum, but Strum has such a tight D and a really good jab that I think can and will frustrate Macklin. Macklin usually gets tagged with jabs quite a bit when fighters do throw it, and he doesn’t have a jab that he throws. Plus, with this fight being in Germany no favors will be given to Macklin. Macklin is tough and Sturm doesn’t knockout anybody that is quality. So, I don’t think Sturm will KO Macklin, but I do favor Sturm to win a pretty wide UD. Winning in the 117-111 range.

Cornelius Bundrage and Sechew Powell are rematching again. They fought back in 2005 on ShoBox and if you haven’t see it, well, it won’t take up too much of your time. The fight ends with both knocking each other down and K9 doing a chicken dance and the fight ends. All that goes on and it was over in 22 seconds. Both were undefeated at the time and now both of them since then have had their ups and downs. Powell was outpointed by Ouma, worked his way back up, but then was upset by Deandre Latimore. A fight in which he looked unfocused, and he paid the price getting stopped in 7. He got his revenge last year though beating Latimore to a 12 round MD victory. That was in March of last year and that has been his last fight. K9 after their first fight went on the Contender and got beat by Steve Forbes. Got stopped by Joel Julio, beat Ouma, and then lost to Grady Brewer by SD. His last fight though, which has almost been a year, was his greatest achievement. He knocked out Cory Spinks 5 rounds and won himself a strap at 154. Alright, let’s quit talking and make a prediction both are solid fighters K9 is a pretty basic fighter. He doesn’t really tricky you with anything he throws 1-2, 1-1-2. All around solid fighter. And then Sechew Powell is solid, mixes in some hooks and what not. You know, tough fight to call, I can see this going anyway, but I guess I’ll go with Sechew Powell by SD.

Now, let’s go back to Friday a fight I’m really looking forward to. A tossup fight in Maurcio Herrera and Mike Dallas Jr. Starting off with Maurcio Herrera, he is a very good fighter, a fighter that you can’t help but root for. He’s always an underdog type fighter, his career stagnats at time because he is too risky of a fighter. He loves boxing, but just hasn’t gotten that huge break yet. This year after upending Ruslan Provodnikov it looked like he may start getting TV exposure and be the top billed fighter, but unfortunately that hasn’t happened for him. From the start of his career he has been in with tough guys, he hasn’t been babied, he has been in tough and has won them all. His record says he has lost a fight, but anybody watching that fight knows that Herrera easily beat Mike Anchondo. If you really wanted to bend over for Anchondo you could may’be find 3 rounds for him, but in reality, Herrera should be undefeated. Anyway, back to what I’m saying, he’s been in tough superb resume so far, and it isn’t getting any easier. He’s going up against the once highly touted prospect. His train was starting to roll, but the train stopped this past January when the vet, Josesito Lopez, pulled off a major upset in stopping Mike Dallas Jr. Dallas is bouncing right back and really risking it all taking on Herrera. Like Herrera, Dallas, has a pretty good resume himself. He’s been with the likes of Lenard Lane and Vincent Arroyo. Dallas is very quick, throws some wide punches though, good jab when he uses it, chin might be a bit shaky. He’s chin might be a big issue. He didn’t take any punches well from Lopez. Anytime Lopez tagged him he was stressing out and looked buzzed or hurt. Herrera can fight inside, showed solid skills off the jab and off the back foot against Provodnikov. Herrera has a big heart, and is really tough. Both have pros and cons that they both can take advantage of. Tough fight, but I’m going with Mike Dallas Jr. by SD. I think realistically, this fight can definitely be a draw. Good boxing from both on the outside, I think the difference in this fight though is that Herrera won’t be as cheeky as Lopez was and as you can say dirty as Lopez. Lopez was doing a lot of rabbit punching and what not that really troubled Dallas. I don’t think Herrera will be doing any of that in close, and I think that’s the difference as Dallas squeaks by a SD.

Now, the main event of the evening. Devon Alexander is looking to rebound and Matthysse is looking to continue to tear through his opponents. And this fight I’m very confident in. Every single time I roll how this fight might go, I really only see it going one way, and that is Lucas Matthysse knocking out Alexander. Matthysse last year took on Zab Judah and lost a very very close decision. He started a bit too late and Judah escaped with a SD one point victory. Which, I cna’t really complain with I think I had Judah up by a point. Matthysse though was definitely caoming on in the last 8 rounds or so. Judah was very lucky to escape with that victory. And his last fight in January, brokedown the very game Chop Chop Corley knocking him down 9 times. Alexander’s breakout came when he made Junior Witter quit, and he knocked out the metal head, Juan Urango. Alexander was on fire, but as quickly as he was on the verge of becoming a star, that’s how quickly it all fell apart. He got a gift against Kotelnik. Kotelnik was definitely robbed, and I don’t use the term “robbery” often. So, after getting that “win” he took on Timothy Bradley and stunk up the joint, both fighters really, and he ended up quitting after a headbutt. He lost clearly by UD. Now, he is trying to rebound and get his career back on track. He’s got a great story and he is a nice kid, but I think Matthysse tears right through him in this fight. I have always,, or at least since the Witter fight, that he is a very poor mans Zab Judah. He is such a basic 1-1-2 fighter. A very predictable fighter, jab, jab, right hand. Against Urango that was his best performance, because he frequently threw his best punch, the lead uppercut (and funny enough Judah’s best punch is the left hand uppercut) but since that fight he hasn’t thrown that lead right uppercut. Then I got to thinking, it won’t matter if he even throws and lands that punch, because Matthysse’s chin got tested vs Zab Judah. He took a uppercut right on the chin and just smiled. He took a few lead left hands and never was buzzed. So, If Judah’s left hand couldn’t hurt Matthysse I don’t see how Alexander can hurt Matthysse. Then we add in the fact that Andriy Kotelnik and Bradley both walked down Alexander and landed numerous punches. Again, Matthysse will easily be able to walk him down, only difference is it isn’t light punching Kotelnik and Bradley. Matthysse will land and hurt Alexander. Also, while Alexander is getting pushed he walks straight back, he doesn’t use angles. A very amaturish quality he has, he feels pressure and goes straight back. So, all in all, I see this going one way and that is Matthysse winning by KO breaking down Alexander, and I do think Matthysse knows he won’t be getting a decision. Matthysse is usually a slow starter, but I think in this fight he will be starting off fast because he knows he has to get Alexander out of there. To wrap this all up, one quick note. Alexander’s people have stated this will be the Urango fight all over again. If they are thinking Matthysse is a one dimensional, crude, slugger, then they have another thing coming. Matthysse, while he is very agressive, he works behind a jab, and has pretty good boxing skills. He doesn’t come in swinging away like a caveman crudely like Marcos Maidana. Matthysse has good skills and will come in and hurt Alexander. Alexander is fast, but very predictable and basic. I’ve got Matthysse stopping Alexander mid to somewhat late. Around the 7-9 range.


Predictions:

Mike Jones vs. Raul Munoz- Mike Jones by KO
Fernando Montiel vs Nehomar Cermeno- Fernando Montiel by UD
Matthew Macklin vs. Felix Sturm- Felix Sturm by UD
Humberto Soto vs. Motoki Sasaki- Humberto Soto by KO
Kell Brook vs. Lovemore N’dou- Kell Brook by UD
Cornelius Bundrage vs. Sechew Powell- Sechew Powell by SD
Tavoris Cloud vs. Yusaf Mack- Tavoris Cloud by KO
Maurcio Herrera vs Mike Dallas Jr.- Mike Dallas Jr. by SD
Devon Alexander vs. Lucas Martin Matthysse- Lucas Matthysse by KO

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