Home Boxing News DemolitionDan Predicts the weekends fights (8-9 July, 2011)

DemolitionDan Predicts the weekends fights (8-9 July, 2011)

Another big weekend of boxing. In the States, Showtime and HBO are going head to head in one of those somewhat rare weekends. We’ll get to those fights in a bit, but for now, let’s talk about some of the other fights that will be going on this weekend as well.

Starting off we have Hugo Fidel Cazares taking on Arturo Badillo. The theme for pretty much every week, and this week as well, is that records do not tell the whole tale. Win-loss records lie quite a bit. You really have to dig into what the win-loss record really is. Hugo Fidel Cazares, like most mexicans, turned pro early in his life and took his lumps early. Four losses and a draw early in his career. You take that away and his record is very good 34 wins 2 losses and a draw. A very good win-loss record for a very good fighter. His two losses came against the great Ivan Calderon, and a draw against Nobuo Nashiro. Who he went on to take on 8 months later and beat by UD. Two epic fights, and has since defended that world title belt at 115 and has defended it 3 times. He is looking to defend it for a 4th time. Standing in his way is Arturo Badillo. He posses a 20-1-0 (18 KO) record, not bad, but again, records don’t tell the tale. It is a padded record. He hasn’t beaten anybody of note, he still is young, very green, but still it is worth noting he doesn’t have any quality wins. He does posses legit power, but that’s about his only shot at winning. I think this is too big of a step too soon, and Cazares will beat Badillo, stopping him along the way.

Jhonny Gonzalez is making his first defense of his world title belt at 126. He won it earlier this year by knocking out Hasgawa in 4 rounds. Sticking with the win-loss record theme, like many before him Jhonny Gonzalez took his lumps early in his career. Losing his first two fights in his career and took a couple of more losses along the way before really getting his groove and really became a professional boxer. From 2002 to 2006 Gonzalez went on a winning streak beating the likes of Roger Gonzalez, Ratanachai Singwancha, Mark Johnson, and Fernando Montiel. Then the winning streak came to a stop as Izzy Vazquez beat him and a couple of fights later Gerry Penalosa stopped him as well. It is worth noting that at the time of the two stoppages he was winning the fight. He proceeded to move up to 122, went on a nice winning streak beating Mauricio Pastrana and Edel Ruiz. Then got stopped yet again against Toshiaki Nishioka, and yet again, he was up at the time of the stoppage. Moved up to 126 and is winning yet again. Tomas Villa is in the way, but I don’t think he beats Gonzalez. While Villa is a solid fighter, he isn’t in the class of the fighters mentioned above. In fact, in his last 5 fights he has lost to two familiar names. Rogers Mtagwa and Miguel “Mikey” Garcia. He was stopped in 10 against Mtagwa and in 1 round versus Garcia. I think that give you a good indicator on where Jhonny Gonzalez stops him. Gonzalez is better than Mtagwa, but I rate Garcia higher, at the moment, so with that said I think Jhonny Gonzalez stops Villa somewhere in the middle may’be even early in the 4-6 range.

Lucian Bute. Ugh. Some much talent, so little opposition. Bute is taking a homecoming fight, In Romania, against Jean Paul Mendy. Bute is doing a good job of staying active, it’s just all the best fighters have been tied up. (for those that don’t know, tied up in the Super 6 World Boxing Classic with all the top 168 pounders fighting each other) pretty much everybody in the boxing community have given Bute a lot of flack for not fighting better opposition, but again, the top fighters have been tied up and Bute has fought decent opposition. After he was lucky not to have lost to Andrade the first time he went on to KO Fulgencio Zuniga, Librado Andrade, Edison Miranda, Jesse Brinkley, and Brian Magee. That is a pretty decent resume. Not terrific, and 3 of those fights were pretty much guaranteed Bute wins, just due to the fact that Bute is that good, but still solid wins. (by the way the pretty much guaranteed wins I’m talking about are against Zuniga, Brinkley, and Magee) This fight though, against Mendy, is a major step down. And sticking with the theme, the win-loss record lies. Mendy is not as good as his record says he is. He has a very padded record, two names he does have on his record are against Anthony Hanshaw, who never went on to be anything good he had a very padded record as well before losing to the shot Roy Jones Jr. and Andre Dirrell. He fought Hanshaw to a draw, and the other name is Bika. He won that fight 60 seconds in flat on his face. Bika hit him while he was down and as a result Mendy wins and gets a shot at Bute, 1 year later. Massive gulf in class, this one will not be close. Bute knocks out Mendy whenever he wants to really.

Alright, then we got to the 4 fights shown in the States. Both cards on HBO and Showtime are different from each other. Let’s get to the one on Showtime first. This card should be very entertaining, on paper, you have a pretty good idea of who might win, but both fights should be very entertaining. While the HBO card might not be so entertaining, the fights are more 50/50 toss ups. Again, though let’s start with the Showtime card. First up Kermit Cintron and Carlos Molina. Kermit Cintron is back making his first appearance since that disgraceful performance against Paul Williams. He pretty much jumped out of the ring and then proceed to lay on the table/floor acting like he had a punctured lung. When all he had, in reality, is a couple of bruises. Not the first time he has been a disgrace, but at any rate. He has decent skills, very good power in his right hand, and a pretty decent resume. He loses to all of the top level guys. He’s lost to Margarito twice, Paul Williams, and Sergio Martinez. (the record will show a draw, but he lost. He got KO’d and lost a decision all in that fight, but ended up with a draw) Sticking with the theme of this article, we go over to Carlos Molina and you see an 18-4-2 record, and you might think he is just some journeyman type fighter, but again, the record lies. Molina is a very crafty, good fighter. All 4 of his losses came early in his career, and while he wasn’t a teen, he still suffered those losses early and has definitely rebounded. And recently he has beaten a couple of good guys on his resume Ed Paredes, and Danny Perez. On ESPN2 in March, he fought Erislandy Lara to a draw. Molina, is definitely a scrapy fighter. Very cagey and he brings it. Cintron doesn’t like dog fights and Molina will definitely try and get Cintron into a dogfight. Early on I see Cintron having success, but as the fight progresses Molina starts getting the better of him, but Cintron holds on to the victory. The key, I think is Molina’s lack of firepower. Should be a great fight, and Cintron wins a very close UD.

The main event of the Showtime card is extremely explosive. Brandon Rios broke onto the scene early last year stopping Jorge Luis Teron, which got everybody’s attention, so much attention, that it led him to getting a fight on HBO where he fought Anthony Peterson. After starting slow, he eventually brokedown Anthony Peterson and scored a DQ win after tons of low blows from Peterson. He came back two months later on the Pacquiao-Margarito card and disposed of Omri Lowther in 5. He then would fight on Showtime and get his shot at a world title belt against Miguel Acosta. After starting slow again, he turned it on and stopped Acosta in 10 rounds in a thrilling Fight of The Year candidate. Now he looks to defend his belt against the equally tough Urbano Antillon. Antillon fights the same way as Rios, he is basically, a Rios clone. The difference is that in Antillon’s two biggest fights he has come up short, while Rios has yet to lose a fight. Antillon was KO’d in 9 rounds against Acosta, and lost by a razor thin decision to Humberto Soto, both thrilling fights. This fight definitely has Fight of The Year candidate written all over it. It will be interesting to see who takes a step back in this fight. As for my prediction, I’ve got Rios winning this fight. I think Rios has a bit more tools to work with. I’ve got Rios slowly breaking down Antillon and gets him out in the mid to late rounds.

Now we hope on over to HBO and we get two very interesting fights. Two fights where you can’t really get a grasp on who really is going to win. Starting off, we have Rico Ramos and Akifumi Shimoda and these two have skills…you know what you might have to make it skillz. These are talented fighters. Both have a lot of tools in the tool box and both are smart. They look for counters and have superb timing. Both are young and pretty green, although, Shimoda has an edge in that department. He has been fighting quality fighters for awhile and has been the 12 round distance twice and 10 rounds several times. And a couple of decent scalps, including, his most recent win against Ryol Li Lee for a world title belt at 122. And who Lee beat to get that belt was Poonsawat Kratingdaenggym a terrific fighter. This is a close fight, I think I gotta go with Ramos via close decision. I think if the fight is close, Ramos will get the nod. In neutral territory, like say just somewhere in Europe, I probably lean towards Shimoda, but being in the States and Ramos fighting in the States and having a undefeated record I think a close fight gets him the nod. So, I’ll roll with Rico Ramos winning via SD.

The main event of the evening, and many major questions will be answered. Both of these fighters, Paul Williams and Erislandy Lara, are coming of their worst performances’ as pros. Paul Williams last stepped foot in a ring with the lights on back in November and he was the victim of 2010’s knockout of the year. Erislandy Lara is coming off a draw against Carlos Molina. He was in a dog fight and he didn’t want any part of it. He looked terrible in the ring, and barely escaped with a draw. Paul Williams has also stated that he wants to retire after a couple of more fights. Which is very bizarre, why would he mention that now with a very tough fight coming up? And does he have any fight in him left? Did he take this fight seriously in training camp? A very bizarre attitude coming from Paul Williams when it was just a year ago he wanted to fight everybody in boxing. Sergio Martinez may have ruined Paul Williams. We will have that answer come saturday night, but we are not done asking questions. Lara, seems to have a motivational problem. going out, parting instead of working. And it definitely showed against Molina. So, what I would like to know is has he put in the work against his toughest challenge to date? Has he put in the time and effort to beat Tall Paul Williams? Now, Lara didn’t have his trainer, Ronnie Shields, in his training camp the last time because Shields had his hands full training various other fighters, including Guillermo Rigondeauex. So, this is a very tough fight to pick. Lara has a couple of nice scalps on his resume beating Grady Brewer and Danny Perez in back to back fights back in 2010, but then took on 4 straight cupcake opponents, took another steep test, but this time didn’t pass. Which was against Carlos Molina, the fight where he got a draw. Paul Williams meanwhile is already battle tested, he has a top of the line resume, and has won a world title (at 147) and has been a force in 3 weight classes.(147, 154, and 160) And what’s funny is that Paul Williams is only one year older than Lara, but they are world’s apart in experience as a pro. It is pretty crazy, but let’s get onto the prediction. Paul Williams as seen fighters like Lara before, a crafty, accurate, skilled southpaw and he is 2-2 against fighters like that. (1-1 to both Carlos Quintana and Sergio Martinez) Lara, meanwhile, hasn’t seen anybody like Paul Williams. Paul Williams is a different animal, a big tall, southpaw, that throws 100 punches a round, has good pop, and superb heart and stamina, but with all that good he does, that bad is that Paul Williams leaves himself wide open and that leaves him open to counter opertunites and somebody like Erislandy Lara can take advantage of that. Just like Quintana and Martinez did. This is a real tough fight to call. Ugh, I guess I’ll roll with Tall Paul winning by a very close SD. This is a tough call, I think Williams’ volume wins him the majority of the rounds, while one other judge likes Lara’s accurate, potshotting. Tough call….how many times have I said that now? but yea, I’ve Williams winning via SD.

Dan’s Predictions:

Jhonny Gonzalez vs. Tomas Villa- Jhonny Gonzalez by KO
Arturo Badillo vs. Hugo Fidel Cazares- Hugo Fidel Cazarez by KO
Lucian Bute vs. Jean Paul Mendy- Lucian Bute by KO
Kermit Cintron vs. Carlos Molina- Kermit Cintron by UD
Urbano Antillon vs. Brandon Rios- Brandon Rios by KO
Paul Williams vs. Erislandy Lara- Paul Williams by SD
Akifumi Shimoda vs. Rico Ramos- Rico Ramos by SD

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