Home Boxing News Demolition Dan’s Predictions for September 17th

Demolition Dan’s Predictions for September 17th

What turned put to be a very big event on Saturday night has sort of lost a little bit of luster. Kassim Ouma-Ewan McEwen were supposed to fight, but now that fight is off. And Erik Morales-Lucas Matthysse were supposed to fight as well, but that fight is off now. Morales is still fighting and is on the Mayweather-Ortiz card, but is fighting Pablo Cesar Cano. An undefeated fighter, a padded record, good power, but is very slow and is definitely not worthy enough of a world title shot, at the moment. Still, there are a couple of good fights on tap and, of course, the Mayweather-Ortiz mega fight.

The first fight on the PPV card will be rising prospect Jessie Vargas. A very strong, powerful undefeated prospect. He is taking on his toughest test to date against a very solid contender in Josesito Lopez. Lopez, very cagey, very experience, and is an all around solid fighter. Coming into this fight both have had big moments in the year of 2011 and both are on fire. Jessie Vargas had a Knockout of the Year nominee when he blasted out Walter Estrada last July, who at that time was his biggest test…a big step up fight for him. And he passed with flying colors blasting Estrada out with a left hook. Lopez in January took on the undefeated prospect of Mike Dallas Jr. fought him very tough, very cagey, took the undefeated prospect into deep waters and eventually drowned him in the 7th round. I like where Josesito Lopez’ head is at right now. He has experience and he has been here before and knows that Vargas has had some problems making 140 and has had problems in the past and is lucky that he is still undefeated. Journeyman Cristian Favela too Vargas into deep waters, but Vargas barely escaped with an 8 round unanimous decision, a very controversial unanimous decision. Style wise, Vargas has balance problems. He tends to fall forward when throwing, doesn’t use his jab enough, and is really in love with his left hook. Throws it a bit too much, but that left hook has dynamite in it. Josesito Lopez will look to close the distance, and really try and bully Vargas and do some inside work. Lopez on the outside, gets hit a bit, his defense seems very leaky, but he is tough. On paper a really close fight, very much a 50/50 type fight. I think this goes to the cards and Jessie Vargas gets a controversial SD victory. So, my prediction in Vargas by SD. I really hope that it isn’t controversial, I don’t care who wins as long as it is the best man. It would really suck if the first fight off “Starpower” starts off in controversial fashion.

Saul “Canelo” Alvarez is on this card as well, but not in Vegas. He is in Southern California taking on Alfonso Gomez. And to be honest, this is basically a worthless fight. Alvarez is a champion now and looked to be heading in the right direction when he took on Ryan Rhodes, but now he is taking a giant lead step back in competition. Alfonso Gomez is a quality opponent, don’t get me wrong, he isn’t a bum by any means. This would be a good fight 2 years ago when Alvarez was taking these step up fights. Taking on the likes of Jose Cotto, Lanardo Tyner, Carlos Baldomir, etc. Gomez would have fit in nicely, but now it definitely isn’t the same. Saul Alvarez is now a champion and took on a very good opponent in Ryan Rhodes last time out and really beat him up. He needs to build on that. Instead, he is taking a giant step back, and not only is he taking a giant step back, he is doing it where people have to shell out 60-70 bucks on PPV, or 10-20 bucks seeing it in a theater. Not only, is this fight a slap in the face to everybody, but it adds salt in the wound having people pay money to see what will probably be a beat down until Alvarez stops him in the mid to late rounds. People want to be entertained with good, competitive fights. Not one sided beatdowns. So, that’s my rant on this fight, and again no disrespect to Alfonso Gomez who is a solid fighter himself, it’s just that this is not a worthy title fight. Plain and simple and this fight should not be one of the fights you have to pay money for. If Alvarez took on an Austin Trout, a Vanes Martirosyan, or just any top 10 fighter at 154 then yeah, it’s a good fight. It just isn’t a complete waste of time. Anyway, we got this fight and let’s break it down. Alvarez is much bigger, better skills, faster, more power, basically, he has every attribute in the book besides heart, and may’be chin. Everything else is a whitewash in favor of Canelo Alvarez and it will be shown on Saturday night. Alvarez will just be beating and beating on Gomez. Gomez a tough fighter, will try his best, but eventually the ref or his corner will stop this fight in the mid to late rounds. It wouldn’t be a total shocker to see Alvarez win by decision…a pretty much shut out win, but I’m expecting Gomez to get stopped in this fight.

And now we come down to the main event of the evening. Floyd ‘Money’ Mayweather is making his return and is taking on the newly crowned title holder of 147 and that is the young, strong, hungry, “tree”, that is ‘Vicious’ Victor Ortiz. You know Mayweather, everybody knows what Mayweather is all about. He is a highly skilled fighter and not only that, but a very smart fighter as well. Mayweather is a thinker in the ring and hardly makes a mistake, and if he does make a mistake, he doesn’t make the same mistake. (IE: throwing a lead left hook and getting caught in the 2nd round of the Shane Mosley fight) Mayweather has all the skills going for him and has established a very good legacy. It could be better, but we won’t get into that. Victor Ortiz really broke onto the scene and really got everybody’s attention when he knocked out Mike Arnoutis in 2 rounds on a very highly rated Boxing After Dark show featuring Robert Guerrero and James Kirkland. He definitely has been on everybody’s radar since then, his next fight after that though established a new household name in the boxing world. And that name would be Marcos Maidana. They both knocked each other down in the first 2 rounds and were in a great great slugfest, until the 5th round when Maidana continued to chip away and start to breakdown Ortiz with his aggression and power. In the 6th it would become too much for him and Ortiz decided to quit. After that Ortiz decided to go straight back into the fire taking on a good name in Antonio Diaz, and a soft touch in Hector Alatorre getting 17 rounds out of those fights. Trying to knockout the demons of the Maidana fight. He then continued on the path back facing the very dangerous, but faded Nate Campbell and winning a shutout. Then destroyed Vivan Harris in 3 rounds and to cap off the year of 2010 and on the doorstep of a world title shot taking on highly rated Lamont Peterson. Early in the fight all was going well for him dropping Peterson twice in the 3rd round. Ortiz stepped off the gas and Peterson pressed forward trying to take away the fight Ortiz seemed to have in the bag. And he almost did, he went home with a draw and doubters once again emerged as Ortiz couldn’t finish off Peterson. He moved up to 147, went for a world title shot against Berto and the once goofy looking babyfaced kid decided enough was enough. He came out as a bearded seriel killer, serious, and intent on coming away with that world title. He did just that beating Andre Berto in a Fight of the Year, Round of the Year, and Upset of the year candidate. On Saturday night, Victor Ortiz will be looking ahead at another tough task. A fight, in which, virtually everybody is predicting him to lose a fight, in which, the champion is a 7/1 underdog. Once again, he is facing an uphill battle and determined to prove everybody wrong, yet again.

Here we are, the two are in the ring, how will this fight go? I got to say, if you are a Mayweather fan, or you got Mayweather on a bet…I would definitely feel uneasy in the the first 4 rounds, because rounds 2-4 we could see history and we may very well see Mayweather get his first loss. Mayweather is a very slow starter, and Ortiz is a fast starter. I can’t see Mayweather getting knocked out in the first round. He’s an all-time great…that’s why I didn’t include the first round, but rounds 2-4 Ortiz may catch him with a quick powerful shot and Mayweather might hit the deck and he might be gone. Mayweather has an average chin, superb defense, but if he gets hit point blank he does get hurt. (See Zab Judah fight, see DeMarcus Corley fight, and see Shane Mosley fight) and two out of those three fighters he’s been buzzed/hurt by have been southpaws and Ortiz is a southpaw. So, as a betting man I’m sure you’ll get great odds picking Ortiz by KO in rounds 2-4, there is massive danger there. If Mayweather does get by that, he’ll be in the clear and start dominating from there. The thing is though, hypothetically, say Ortiz does win 3 of the first 4 rounds and gets a knockdown. He’ll have massive momentum and he’ll be pumped up. He’ll be in Mayweather’s face all night and if he’s aggressive and throws punches in bunches. No matter how accurate Mayweather is the judges could give the swing rounds to Ortiz. It’s definitely possible that could happen, it is very unlikely, but hey it is a realistic possibility. Anyway, after round 4 I think Mayweather is in the clear though, he starts breaking down Ortiz and starts pulling away and eventually does get the decision. A late round stoppage is very possible though as well. Mayweather isn’t knocking out Ortiz, but a ref stoppage or corner stoppage could happen in the double digit rounds. I’m not rolling with that though, I’ve got Mayweather by decision, in unanimous fashion. A somewhat close, but clear decision for Mayweather in the 116-112/117-111 range.

Jessie Vargas vs. Josesito Lopez- Jessie Vargas by SD
Saul Alvarez vs. Alfonso Gomez- Saul Alvarez by KO
Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs. Victor Ortiz- Floyd Mayweather by UD

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