Home Boxing News Demolition Dan’s Predictions 14/15th October

Demolition Dan’s Predictions 14/15th October

Jonathan Victor Barros vs. Celestino Caballero II- Celestino Caballero by SD
Nathan Cleverly vs. Tony Bellew- Nathan Cleverly by KO
James DeGale vs. Piotr Wilczewski- James DeGale by UD
Bernard Hopkins vs. Chad Dawson- Bernard Hopkins by TKO
Antonio DeMarco vs. Jorge Linares- Jorge Linares by UD
Danny Garcia vs. Kendall Holt- Kendall Holt by KO

Another big boxing weekend coming up, very entertaining fights on paper, and very much 50/50 fights this week. Very tough fights to call. A legend going up against a very skilled, athletic young fighter, a prospect trying to graduate to a real contender, a rematch of a close fight just a few months ago. A lot to get to and let’s get right to it.

Jonathan Victor Barros and Celestino Caballero are going at it again, and before I get into this fight my first thought is, I would bet on the draw. The draw always gets great value and I’m sure you could get the draw at 30/1 or something like that. The reason for that is, the first fight was close, this fight is in Argentina once again. The overall better fighter protested, and a lot of people didn’t like the decision. This fight is a lot like what just happened a couple of weeks ago Karo Murat-Gabriel Campillo II. The taller, overall better fighter is on the road and if t close, like the first fight, I can definitely see this fight being a draw. Anyway, just some food for thought. The first was close, and controversial. I thought Barros won close, Caballero for long periods of that fight would not throw, lean back turn his back, turn his head and complain about shots to the back of the head. For a couple of rounds here and there he did show flashes of his brilliance, but it wasn’t enough. I think most people didn’t see the fight, or they expected Caballero to win that when they heard that he was on the road, scored two knockdowns, and quickly assume that he got robbed. Again, I thought it was close, could have gone either way and if Caballero applied himself he could have won, definitely. I think this fight is close again. Caballero shows that jab, shows that range and wins a few rounds like that. Then he starts day dreaming and Barros gets back into the fight. Basically, like the first fight. It’s close but they give it to Caballero via SD. I’m going with Caballero too since, recently, rematches the loser as come out on top this past month or so. Rodrigo Guerrero defeated Raul Martinez, Jorge Arce defeated Simphiwe Nongqayi, and Andy Lee defeated Brian Vera. So, I’m rolling with that hot streak of the losers of the first fight getting the better of it in the rematch, Caballero by SD.

In the UK, James DeGale is looking to bounce back after his humbling loss to his rival George Groves. He’s taking on quality veteran Piotr Wilczewski a quality fighter who has only one loss to Curtis Stevens in which he was overwhelmed and beat in 3 rounds. Fortunately, for Wilczewski, DeGale fights nothing like Stevens. DeGale is a young fighter who has nice skills from the outside. Nice switch hitter and is really good, just a bit green with only 11 fights under his belt. I think the loss to Groves could, potentially, be good for him if learns from that experience. Learn to get a bit quicker on his feet and be able to cut off the ring. Use that jab a bit more, and don’t switch hit as much. No need to switch stance every other minute, that is not good and does more harm than good. You need to establish a rhythm from one side and then start switch hitting. A perfect example is Andre Ward. He establishes his orthodox side and then turns soouthpaw a bit, but he doesn’t keep changing stances every other minute. If he builds and learns he can definitely become a world title level fighter, but he can’t over look Piotr Wilczewski. Wilczewski is coming off his best win as a pro stopping Amin Asikainen in Finland. Wilczewski’s got some slickness about him. He’s not one of these stand up, gloves up, type European fighters. He’s got that left hand down, moves his head a bit. Has a decent arsenal, goes to the body quite a bit with that left hook. He is a good fighter and I think DeGale will have his hands full a bit, but he will win this fight. DeGale is the better fighter, he’s got the skills, the speed, etc. I think DeGale wins by somewhat wide UD. DeGale slaps quite a bit, and I don’t think Wilczewski will give DeGale any opportunity to slap him to the ropes , otherwise you risk a stoppage. Just look at last week’s fight of Kell Brook and Rafal Jackiewicz, and that is the history of U.K. fights. Referees pull the trigger very fast. Anyway, I’ve got James DeGale by UD.

The main event of the card is Nathan Cleverly and Tony Bellew. Cleverly is a very established 175 fighter who has gotten a pretty good resume and was awarded a world title belt. He was going to go up against Jurgen Brahmer to really earn that world title, but unfortunately, Brahmer pulled out at the last minute again and the world title organization basically awarded Cleverly with the title. So, Cleverly has a belt now and he is going to defend it against the undefeated Tony Bellew who stunk out the joint in his last fight and really has a padded record. He hasn’t taken the steps that Cleverly has taken, and his only notable fight is Ovill McKenzie who he fought in a great fight last year, but the rematch was a stinker. Cleverly has been in some fantastic wars (minus a bad fight with Nadjib Mohammad) but really it’s because he comes in, hands down, and really leaves his chin out to dry. His last 2 of 3 fights he has been buzzed and or hurt. He definitely is a knockout waiting to happen because of his lack of defense and his mostly aggressive nature. Bellew lacks experience, but he does have power. And I believe that is his only shot to win is catching Cleverly with his hands down and chin up. Every other attribute though is definitely in Cleverly’s favor. Which leads me to take Cleverly, and I’ve got Cleverly winning via stoppage.

Over in the States a great card on Saturday night. One of the fights on tap is Jorge Linares and Antonio DeMarco. It was just a couple of years ago when Linares was one of the can’t miss fighters who was on the verge of becoming a breakout star. Then one punch changed that all. Juan Carlos Salgado caught Linares on the temple and Linares was pretty much done. A one round stoppage. Linares went back to Venezuela and won a close, MD. Linares moved up to 135 and fought Rocky Juarez and he did something no other has done, at the time, knockdown Rocky Juarez. Linares looked good outboxing Juarez and has looked good beating Jesus Chavez and Adrian Verdugo. Antonio DeMarco meanwhile, is a solid, former world title challenger. He has nice range, and good boxing skills which good trouble Linares a bit since he likes to be on the outside as well. In DeMarco’s last fight he didn’t look all that good against journeyman Reyes Sanchez. Sanchez was able to get inside and do some nice work on DeMarco. DeMarco clearly won, but somebody like Sanchez had too much success. Style’s make fights though, and Linares doesn’t fight like Sanchez. I’m looking for a technical fight, not too many fireworks. A lot of boxing, and thinking in there, with both fighters having success. I think Linares outboxes and does enough on the judges scorecards to win a close unanimous decision.

Kendall Holt is an extremely hot and cold fighter. Very talented fighter, but lacks the mental strength, and isn’t always there. He starts day dreaming and before you know it, 6 rounds have gone by and he hasn’t done much. Danny Garcia is Golden Boy Promotions next big prospect. They like he very much, good boxing skills, nice power, etc. He has taken all the steps to get ready for this stage. He has taken on solid fighters such as Ashley Theophane, Mike Aranoutis, and most recently Nate Campbell. Holt has the much better resume though, and has won a world title. On ESPN2’s Friday Night Fights, Kendall Holt showed just how good he is when he is right mentally. He used range and showed off that great left hook and knocked out Julio Diaz in 3 rounds. He’s got all the tools, he just needs to put it together and mentally focus. He is 30 years old now, and he has something to prove, he has a chip on his shoulder and I think he knocks out Danny Garcia. As I said, Golden Boy Promotions really like Garcia, but I’m not quite so high on him. While he has good boxing skills, he doesn’t use them enough and he doesn’t have a jab. He has no jab, and when he throws a jab, it is a bad jab and I think he has relied too much on his power. He stands in the pocket too much and doesn’t throw enough while in range. He lacks experience and when the bright lights are on, he has melted a bit. Against Theophane he won, but he definitely was a deer in the headlights. Not only that, but his defense is leaky. Wide shots have gotten through and against Holt who is rangy, that power will get in there. I think Holt has the ability to not only knock him out, but outbox him if his mind is right. I am banking that he is all there In the head and he knocks out Danny Garcia. Just too many flaws, and may’be rushing him just a bit. I would have waited a couple of more fights before taking this big jump against someone like Kendall Holt.

The main event of the evening is a terrific one, a very intriguing fight. ‘Bad’ Chad Dawson is challenging for the world title at 175 against the ageless Bernard Hopkins. I have been going back and forth on this fight. I have been going back and forth with this fight. One day I’m thinking Hopkins, the next I’m thinking Chad Dawson. Dawson has the style, and attributes to really give Hopkins problems and win. Dawson though, a lot like Holt, has mental problems. Dawson lacks concentration and has lapses where he gets hit when he shouldn’t be getting hit. He day dreams and that cost him against Pascal where he started coming on late, but uh oh, too little too late. And Dawson has never really fought a full 12 rounds with the right mental state, and I think that is why I’m going with Bernard Hopkins. Dawson has the size, jab, speed, skills, etc. to beat Hopkins, but he doesn’t like to be in a dog fight, and he can’t make mid fight adjustments. Hopkins can, and will make adjustments. If fighting aggressively won’t work, then he’ll back up and use lateral movement and that is why I am going with Hopkins in this fight. Hopkins can move lateral, make Dawson come forward, and pot shot him. Basically, like what Pascal was able to do. If that doesn’t work he can go to a plan B and start fighting aggressively, get inside get in dirty and make it a dog fight. A fight, In which, Dawson doesn’t like. Plus, Dawson is a southpaw, Hopkins’ best punch Is that straight right hand and if he can land that early and often, he will have a field day and Dawson won’t make adjustments to stop it, If Hopkins finds his range he will start clocking Dawson. So, I’m picking Hopkins, but I’m going against the grain, I think Hopkins stops Dawson in the 10th, 11th round. I think Dawson quits on his stool and Hopkins gets his first stoppage since Oscar De La Hoya. Hopkins is looking to put on a show, and I think he does and continue his great legacy.

Side note: 52 year old Dewey Bozella is making his pro debut. And Luis Collazo-Freddy Hernandez and Paulie Malignaggi-Orlando Lora are two great fights as well on the card. My hat is off to Golden Boy Promotions, for a great card.

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